China remains a leader in the AI space. Microsoft would be losing significant competitive advantages by closing the division.
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Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
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Why might you be wrong?
Risks of doing business with China rise more quickly than expected.
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Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Putin seems in full control of the government and military. Health issues are a concern, but not likely in such a short time frame.
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Really don't see this happening. Don't see high chances of a strike or protests, or Chinese military action that could cause this.