RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	-0.091551
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Li Keqiang be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.026661
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Chen Min'er be a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	0.020804
Jan 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC	Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?	-0.000006
Dec 22, 2022 08:51PM UTC	How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the "Big 5" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?	-0.024023
Jul 23, 2022 04:18PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern between August 1, 2021 and July 31, 2022?	0.010285
Jul 23, 2022 04:17PM UTC	Will the World Health Organization declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern in the next four quarters? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 28, 2021 and Jun 1, 2022)	0.056874
May 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC	What will the 'Big 5' (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft) tech companies' average reputation ranking be in the 2022 Axios Harris poll?	-0.026417
Apr 28, 2022 01:30AM UTC	When will 1 billion people in India receive at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?	-0.006165
Feb 28, 2022 03:38PM UTC	Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	-0.305988
Feb 17, 2022 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Feb 17, 2022)	0.020661
Feb 16, 2022 06:45PM UTC	Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2021 and Dec 31, 2021)	0.05194
Feb 08, 2022 06:49AM UTC	Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?	-0.036924
Jan 31, 2022 03:17PM UTC	How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.225188
Jan 04, 2022 01:22PM UTC	How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.064305
Jan 01, 2022 01:40PM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?	0.024567
Jan 01, 2022 12:59PM UTC	Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?	0.164381
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.01
Dec 17, 2021 11:00AM UTC	Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 17, 2021 and Dec 17, 2021)	0.002757
Nov 18, 2021 03:56PM UTC	What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?	-0.067319

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