RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 05:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	5%	-2%	+1%
No	97%	Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	95%	+2%	-1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 11:12AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
S-400 or S-500 missile system	5%	9%	-4%	-4%
Su-35 fighter jets	1%	7%	-6%	-1%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 11:14AM UTC
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	29%	25%	+4%	-4%
No	71%	75%	-4%	+4%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 01, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	0%	4%	-4%	-1%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	1%	-1%	-2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 04, 2024 03:05PM UTC
(26 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+1%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:08PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	8%	-3%	+2%
No	95%	Sep 12, 2024 to Sep 12, 2025	Dec 12, 2024	92%	+3%	-2%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:09PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	98%	96%	+2%	+0%
No	2%	4%	-2%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 12, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	28%	22%	+6%	-13%
No	72%	78%	-6%	+13%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 01:26PM UTC
(11 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 05:12PM UTC
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	5%	-4%	-2%
No	99%	95%	+4%	+2%

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