Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
47
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 7 | 236 | 47 | 894 |
| Comments | 1 | 6 | 56 | 40 | 392 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 6 | 48 | 24 | 162 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 147 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026
87%
(0%)
No
Apr 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Angola
3%
(-6%)
Kenya
22%
(-10%)
Ethiopia
3%
(+1%)
Nigeria
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-9%)
Yes
97%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
NVIDIA is affected by tariffs and uncertainty
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe they'll make a good deal and benefit greatly
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
67%
Less than 30 days
10%
30 days
7%
31-60 days
7%
61-90 days
9%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
Most likely a ceasefire would be for show as things are regrouped
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The international community is getting tired of this conflict and the parties involved may want to do something else
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-6%)
Yes
93%
(+6%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
seeming less likely as time goes on
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could be working on new products they're not sharing info about
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(-2%)
Yes
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2025
96%
(+2%)
No
Apr 8, 2025 to Oct 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering a bit, I think North Korea is happy to not be the focus of attention right now.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Apparently they have some new drones they want to test
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-22%)
Yes
80%
(+22%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going back down as there doesn't seem to be any clear desire from Russia to make this happen
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Something really bad could happen and it could just end
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
42%
Yes
58%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It's looking like some kind of ceasefire could happen, though whether it will last is less likely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Difficult to analyze logically as what is happening may be the opposite of what it seems
Files