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28th
Accuracy Rank

guyrecord

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2024 Season Stats

-0.230514

Relative Brier Score

166

Forecasts

4

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 14 29 259 166 777
Comments 1 1 40 18 218
Questions Forecasted 12 21 59 40 146
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 14 4 147
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
guyrecord made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
92% (+7%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
8% (-7%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025

just to be higher than 6 month forecast

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New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
guyrecord made their 8th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90% (+7%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
10% (-7%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

News of imminent ground invasion. If that doesn't meet the qualification for war then I'm not sure what does?

Personally, if another country shot any number of missiles into my town, I would think that was war. But if troops roll across the border,  well, I'm pretty sure it's on.

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New Prediction

seems I was a bit high and the US at least is trying to prevent China from making more bases.

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New Prediction
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
guyrecord made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
19% (+4%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
81% (-4%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

due to threats from Israel

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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
guyrecord made their 1st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
8%
Moldova
2%
Armenia
3%
Georgia
1%
Kazakhstan

some possibilities apparently, mostly going with crowd at this point

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New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
guyrecord made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85% (+43%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
15% (-43%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025

I mean, I guess I should be higher on 12 months than 6 months.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
guyrecord made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
83% (+8%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
17% (-8%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025

going up even more as escalation and mentions of war which may or may not qualify as declaration of war continue

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New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
guyrecord made their 8th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (-1%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
99% (+1%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025

going down, nothing looking good right now

Files
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
guyrecord made their 8th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6% (-1%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
94% (+1%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025

going down only slightly, though I like there's more uncertainty with this question

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New Prediction

not at this point

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