21st
Accuracy Rank

guyrecord

About:
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-0.24255

Relative Brier Score

55

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 6 30 266 196 807
Comments 0 0 33 18 218
Questions Forecasted 6 25 62 44 150
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 12 4 147
 Definitions
New Prediction

reconfirming

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New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025

reconfirming

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New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
57% (+12%)
Yes
43% (-12%)
No

getting closer to coming true but a ways to go

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New Prediction

don't see any reason to change

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New Badge
guyrecord
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
crowd seems too high, lots of pressure not to at this moment
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New Badge
guyrecord
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45% (-55%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
55% (+55%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025

Lowering because now this is for today for the next 6 months, not including the attack from days ago.

Not sure why that hasn't resolved yet.

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New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (+25%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
0% (-25%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025

This appears to have happened.

So, not sure if this is forecasting what happened recently, or would then be forecasting what will happen in the next 6 months after it happened. In which case, probably not the right probability,

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Hinterhunter
made a comment:

Comment deleted on Oct 29, 2024 03:07AM UTC

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New Badge
guyrecord
earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting in 150 questions!
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