reconfirming
0.725926
Relative Brier Score
369
Forecasts
126
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 30 | 266 | 196 | 807 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 33 | 18 | 218 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 25 | 62 | 44 | 150 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 147 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2024 to May 1, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
57%
(+12%)
Yes
43%
(-12%)
No
getting closer to coming true but a ways to go
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
don't see any reason to change
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
(-1%)
Yes
69%
(+1%)
No
crowd seems too high, lots of pressure not to at this moment
Files
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(-55%)
Yes
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
55%
(+55%)
No
Oct 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2025
Lowering because now this is for today for the next 6 months, not including the attack from days ago.
Not sure why that hasn't resolved yet.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+25%)
Yes
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
0%
(-25%)
No
Oct 28, 2024 to Apr 28, 2025
This appears to have happened.
So, not sure if this is forecasting what happened recently, or would then be forecasting what will happen in the next 6 months after it happened. In which case, probably not the right probability,
Files
Comment deleted on Oct 29, 2024 03:07AM UTC
Files
reconfirming