21st
Accuracy Rank

guyrecord

About:
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0.725926

Relative Brier Score

369

Forecasts

126

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 2 32 251 208 819
Comments 0 2 24 20 346
Questions Forecasted 2 29 61 46 152
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 7 4 147
 Definitions
New Prediction

Looks like they will make progress in this area but most likely will fall short of the benchmark on this date

Files
New Prediction

I don't think this will be the main focus for China to hit this goal by the target date

Files
New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
98% (0%)
Yes
2% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 5th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
38% (+10%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025
62% (-10%)
No
Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

increasing due to political changes and likelihood of a looking for a villain

Files
Why might you be wrong?
The previous Trump administration managed to not start any wars
Files
New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
2% (+2%)
Estonia
1% (+1%)
Latvia
1% (+1%)
Lithuania

increasing due to political changes

Files
New Prediction

slight bump with recent political changes, but most likely nothing will happen before February, or more likely Spring/Summer

Files
New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 17th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (-4%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1% (-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?
Looks like the smart money is going towards 0-0. But, still a possibility.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the US is friendlier with Russia than wouldn't Iran need these systems more? 
Files
New Prediction
guyrecord
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14% (0%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025
86% (0%)
No
Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

adjusting slightly towards crowd due to time and lack of more input

Files
New Prediction

it seems the more you analyze this question the less clear it gets, going up towards where the smart people are at

Files
Files
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