Confirmed previous forecast
-0.387602
Relative Brier Score
206
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 30 | 250 | 206 | 817 |
| Comments | 2 | 2 | 24 | 20 | 346 |
| Questions Forecasted | 9 | 27 | 60 | 44 | 150 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 147 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
98%
(0%)
Yes
2%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
38%
(+10%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025
62%
(-10%)
No
Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
increasing due to political changes and likelihood of a looking for a villain
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The previous Trump administration managed to not start any wars
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(+2%)
Estonia
1%
(+1%)
Latvia
1%
(+1%)
Lithuania
increasing due to political changes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(+1%)
Kharkiv
1%
(+1%)
Kyiv
1%
(+1%)
Odesa
slight bump with recent political changes, but most likely nothing will happen before February, or more likely Spring/Summer
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
1%
(-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Why do you think you're right?
Looks like the smart money is going towards 0-0. But, still a possibility.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If the US is friendlier with Russia than wouldn't Iran need these systems more?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025
86%
(0%)
No
Nov 14, 2024 to Nov 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
(-2%)
Yes
73%
(+2%)
No
adjusting slightly towards crowd due to time and lack of more input
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(+12%)
Yes
84%
(-12%)
No
it seems the more you analyze this question the less clear it gets, going up towards where the smart people are at
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(+5%)
Yes
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
94%
(-5%)
No
Nov 14, 2024 to May 14, 2025
If Iran is attempting the assassinate the US president elect (they claim they aren't) then the crowd is probably low on the chances of an airstrike against US forces https://www.newsweek.com/iran-breaks-silence-trump-assassination-attempt-claims-1983687
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(+4%)
Yes
94%
(-4%)
No
unlikely before US inauguration, but could happen happen if they can get credit for it
Files