RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)	0.0
Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM	Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024)	-0.033139
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	-0.167543
Feb 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)	0.002445
Feb 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Feb 2, 2024)	0.0
Feb 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	0.000536
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.011414
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 700 or more fatalities from protests, riots, and violence against civilians in Iran?	0.038925
Jan 1, 2024 05:00PM	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.000117
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?	-0.000003
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	-0.004439
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	0.000783
Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.03484
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023)	0.0
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.149164
Nov 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	-0.012732
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	0.015843
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	-0.035789
Sep 1, 2023 09:00PM	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	-0.010234
Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.00754

Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)

0.0

Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM

Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024)

-0.033139

Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM

Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?

-0.167543

Feb 6, 2024 04:00PM

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 6, 2024 and Feb 6, 2024)

0.002445