Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
33 Forecasts
33 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:38PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:38PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 | Jan 13, 2026 | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 | Jan 13, 2026 | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts
30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:38PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:38PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 7% | +3% | 0% |
| No | 90% | 93% | -3% | 0% |
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Forecast Count:
23 Forecasts
23 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 9% | -5% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 91% | +5% | +1% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
47 Forecasts
47 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:39PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 | Jan 13, 2026 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 | Jan 13, 2026 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
75 Forecasts
75 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:40PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:40PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 | Jan 13, 2026 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Dec 13, 2025 to Jun 13, 2026 | Jan 13, 2026 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
20 Forecasts
20 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:41PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:41PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | 0% |
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2025 02:41PM UTC
(5 days ago)
Dec 13, 2025 02:41PM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 93% | 81% | +12% | +2% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 80% | 55% | +25% | +1% |