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Forecasted Questions

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Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 02:35PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	2%	+0%	+0%
No	98%	98%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 02:35PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025	Apr 15, 2025 02:35PM	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025	Apr 15, 2025 02:35PM	98%	+2%	+0%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
28 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 02:37PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	9%	-5%	-1%
No	96%	91%	+5%	+1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
27 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 02:37PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 02:37PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025	Apr 15, 2025 02:37PM	6%	-2%	+0%
No	96%	Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025	Apr 15, 2025 02:37PM	94%	+2%	+0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
41 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 02:37PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Mar 15, 2025 to Mar 15, 2026	Jun 15, 2025 02:37PM	7%	-1%	+0%
No	94%	Mar 15, 2025 to Mar 15, 2026	Jun 15, 2025 02:37PM	93%	+1%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 02:37PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	6%	+4%	+0%
No	90%	94%	-4%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
47 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 15, 2025 02:38PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025	Apr 15, 2025 02:38PM	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025	Apr 15, 2025 02:38PM	99%	-1%	+0%