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Forecasted Questions
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Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 35 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:52PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 2% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 1%
No 98% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 47 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:52PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 37 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 5%
No 99% 95%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 35 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 48 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Feb 16, 2025 0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 5%
No 96% 95%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 34%
No 93% 66%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 29 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 35% Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025 Feb 16, 2025 22%
No 65% Nov 16, 2024 to Nov 16, 2025 Feb 16, 2025 78%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 16, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(6 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 0%
No 100% Nov 16, 2024 to May 16, 2025 Dec 16, 2024 100%
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