Confirmed previous forecast
0.023733
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
62
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 24 | 419 | 62 | 1008 |
| Comments | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 | 88 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 8 | 22 | 11 | 85 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 72 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2025 to Mar 15, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Mar 15, 2025 to Mar 15, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-2%)
Yes
96%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Going further down due to the passage of time, and an increasingly diversified field of AI chip designers. + Potential upcoming export controls that limit Nvidia's sale to China.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A new AI model might be released from a company that heavily relies on Nvidia chips.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 15, 2025 to Sep 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 8, 2025 to Mar 8, 2026
94%
(0%)
No
Mar 8, 2025 to Mar 8, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
No recent positive development
Why might you be wrong?
Some type of deal in the Middle East initiated by the US.