Depends which country. US — no. China— probably.
1.660229
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
100%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
Don’t think this is universally important to them, maybe in select cases.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Don’t think Meta would reveal ability to detect that.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
No idea, guessing.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Less than 4 million
20%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
10%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
Never heard of this! Many people may have privacy concerns. Also not sure what the purpose is.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe it’ll be advertised more.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
They are not incentivized to do so, a lot of nuance involved.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Anything can happen!
Files