johnakm

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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2023 10:38AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 1% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 2% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 2% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 95% 99%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 07, 2024 05:17PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 11%
No 100% 89%
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