Forecasted Questions
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2023 10:38AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Sep 23, 2023 10:38AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 1% | 0% | +1% | -3% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 2% | 0% | +2% | -3% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 2% | 1% | +1% | -25% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 95% | 99% | -4% | +31% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 07, 2024 05:17PM UTC
(5 months ago)
May 07, 2024 05:17PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 22% | -22% | -36% |
| No | 100% | 78% | +22% | +36% |