Forecasted Questions
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 03:00AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 03:00AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 03:11AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 11% | +9% | +0% |
| No | 80% | 89% | -9% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 10:35AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 10:35AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 54% | -14% | +4% |
| No | 60% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 46% | +14% | -4% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 02:06AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 02:06AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 | Oct 27, 2024 | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
14 Forecasts
14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2024 02:06AM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 27, 2024 02:06AM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Sep 29, 2024 04:46PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 41% | -16% | -1% |
| No | 75% | 59% | +16% | +1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 02:53PM UTC
(7 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 84% | +6% | +3% |
| No | 10% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 16% | -6% | -3% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 05:37PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
Sep 30, 2024 05:37PM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |
| Oman | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |