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Accuracy Rank

johnnycaffeine

John Bash
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Forecasted Questions
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Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 03:01AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 24% 35%
No 76% 65%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 03:08AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 03:13AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 03:19AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 10% Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 24%
No 90% Nov 20, 2024 to Nov 20, 2025 Dec 20, 2024 76%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 12:56PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 25%
No 90% 75%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 12:58PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 0% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 20, 2024 01:00PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 21, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 61% 34%
No 39% 66%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 21, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 14 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 21, 2024 09:37PM UTC
(13 hours ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025 Dec 21, 2024 1%
No 100% Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025 Dec 21, 2024 99%
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