RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2025 07:37PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	6%	-2%	+0%
No	96%	94%	+2%	+0%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 24, 2025 11:47PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	10%	0%	+10%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	15%	5%	+10%	-7%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	70%	80%	-10%	+2%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	4%	13%	-9%	+3%
More than or equal to 40%	1%	1%	+0%	+1%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	24%	37%	-13%	+1%
No	76%	63%	+13%	-1%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 09:14PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(5 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2025 10:22PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	5%	-1%	-2%
No	96%	95%	+1%	+2%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2025 07:49PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	3%	+0%	-5%
No	97%	97%	+0%	+5%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 16, 2025 12:31AM
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	12%	Mar 16, 2025 to Mar 16, 2026	Jun 16, 2025 12:31AM	8%	+4%	-1%
No	88%	Mar 16, 2025 to Mar 16, 2026	Jun 16, 2025 12:31AM	92%	-4%	+1%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 3, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 05:50AM
(10 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	8%	+2%	-2%
No	90%	92%	-2%	+2%

johnnycaffeine

About:

Participation in currently active questions

Forecasted Questions - 2025 Season