RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM	In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)	0.375028
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?	-0.001009
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	-0.006124
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	-0.000004
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	-0.006661
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	0.002178
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	0.13806
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	0.103135
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	-0.000118
Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)	-0.00002
Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)	0.00364
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	-0.000269
Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	-0.001591
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM	Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?	-0.000025
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?	0.000519
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?	-0.045758
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?	-0.009787
Jun 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 6, 2024 and Jun 6, 2024)	0.004387
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?	-0.053452
Jun 1, 2024 04:00AM	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.314415

Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

0.375028

Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

-0.001009

Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

-0.006124

Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

-0.000004