RAND Forecasting Initiative

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New Prediction

How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?

kth227forecast made their 1st forecast (view all):

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Probability

Answer

Less than or equal to 24

29%

Between 25 and 34, inclusive

Between 35 and 44, inclusive

Between 45 and 54, inclusive

68%

More than or equal to 55

As of Oct 2023 there have already been almost 200 collisions total since 2022 (SF Chronicle).

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Oct 09, 2023 06:19PM UTC

PeruforecastSacredvalley made a comment:

hello @kth227forecast welcome,

just for your information:

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Oct 09, 2023 06:29PM UTC

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My First Question

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