While these entities may include digital provenance as a contributing element of veracity it is highly unlikely (and not supported by previous actions) that these organizations will favor verifiability over "first-to-print"
1.948029
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A large number of high-profile, sequential, and embarrassing stories from these outlets that were proven fakes would force the leadership to announce (though not necessarily enact) digital provenance standards
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
45%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Similar to question 1. The likelihood that some domestic or foreign entity is currently using AI (or will be using it soon) is a near certainty. The probability that it will be detected (or attributed) is less likely... but still more likely than not... even when narrowed to a single (meta) entity...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A detected disruption that favors a political entity that is favored by Meta may not be perused for attribution (or reported)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
45%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Initial rollout or testing of some digital provenance technology is more likely than not in the next 6 months
Files
Why might you be wrong?
internal competition for resources within these companies may inhibit social media orgs from enabling/investing in this feature without some significant external incentive
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
33%
Less than 4 million
34%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
33%
More than or equal to 6 million
Why do you think you're right?
My uncertainty on this issue is large
Files
Why might you be wrong?
My uncertainty on this issue is large.
Files
New Badge
My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
45%
Yes
55%
No
Why do you think you're right?
AI is capable of generating 1000's of curated, unique responses to social media posts and news comments right now... the likelihood that our adversaries (or even domestic political entities) will use this tool to shape conversations and narratives in the next 12 months is near certain... to forecast that social media will recognize this as an issue, and also take action depends on a number of factors--including: Is the impact obvious? ; (and possibly more importantly) Does the impact of the AI interference conflict with the political and commercial concerns of these companies? While it may be possible to statistically show that something is amiss (there is interference) ... the ability to concretely provide evidence of AI usage is less likely... also the politicalization of every issue provides the possibility that evidence of AI interference could be available, but the will to act would not materialize
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If an issue that conflicted with the political leanings of these companies in the next 12 months, and there was enough public outcry there could be some action on the part of at least one of these companies...
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?