Xi has in effect staked his regime's legitimacy on zero Covid. Backing off now would be a defeat of epic proportions.
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Active Forecaster
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
It's China, and they may value their economy more than we thought!
Why do you think you're right?
Current leading technology, the Illumina sequencer, can only drive the cost down to 200 minimum. It would be fascinating if this was beat.
Why might you be wrong?
Murphy's law can offer surprises.
Why do you think you're right?
While the Russian position has further weakened, Putin seems to be cementing his grip on power.
Why might you be wrong?
The hard-liners in his government are getting antsy.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
I think I'm right because of the trends in Google's annual publications. 2022 has seen far fewer publications than 2020 and 2021, probably because of the loss of several AI researchers, but I'm confident in the ability of Google's team and recruiting to make up the deficit.
Why might you be wrong?
The recent loss of several talented AI researchers at Google AI may have sufficiently slowed down research for long enough that Google will be unable to recover by 2023.
Why do you think you're right?
If we put stock in the Davidson window, the Matsu islands could be the first to go.
Why might you be wrong?
It might be wrong because, well, China is an unpredictable country and using force to reclaim territory would trigger a forceful response as well.