Xi has in effect staked his regime's legitimacy on zero Covid. Backing off now would be a defeat of epic proportions.
0.021081
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Most Active Topics:
Future Bowl
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's China, and they may value their economy more than we thought!
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
Current leading technology, the Illumina sequencer, can only drive the cost down to 200 minimum. It would be fascinating if this was beat.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Murphy's law can offer surprises.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-35%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
While the Russian position has further weakened, Putin seems to be cementing his grip on power.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The hard-liners in his government are getting antsy.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
I think I'm right because of the trends in Google's annual publications. 2022 has seen far fewer publications than 2020 and 2021, probably because of the loss of several AI researchers, but I'm confident in the ability of Google's team and recruiting to make up the deficit.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The recent loss of several talented AI researchers at Google AI may have sufficiently slowed down research for long enough that Google will be unable to recover by 2023.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
If we put stock in the Davidson window, the Matsu islands could be the first to go.
Why might you be wrong?
It might be wrong because, well, China is an unpredictable country and using force to reclaim territory would trigger a forceful response as well.