RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 08:38PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	25%	19%	+6%	+0%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	65%	72%	-7%	+0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	10%	8%	+2%	+0%
More than or equal to 40%	0%	0%	+0%	0%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 08:39PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Qatar	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 08:39PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	8%	+2%	-3%
No	90%	92%	-2%	+3%

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 08:39PM UTC
(15 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	30%	38%	-8%	-4%
No	70%	62%	+8%	+4%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 20, 2024 07:02PM UTC
(2 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	1%	+4%	+0%
No	95%	Nov 20, 2024 to May 20, 2025	Dec 20, 2024	99%	-4%	+0%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 02:39PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	57%	-17%	-1%
No	60%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	43%	+17%	+1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 02:39PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025	Feb 21, 2025	12%	-12%	-2%
No	100%	Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025	Feb 21, 2025	88%	+12%	+2%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 02:39PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 02:39PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Feb 21, 2025	4%	+3%	+0%
No	93%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Feb 21, 2025	96%	-3%	+0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 02:40PM UTC
(1 day ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	Nov 21, 2024 to May 21, 2025	Dec 21, 2024	99%	+1%	+0%

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