Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2024 01:47PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Sep 10, 2024 01:47PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 10, 2024 to Sep 10, 2025 | Dec 10, 2024 | 5% | -5% | +1% |
| No | 100% | Sep 10, 2024 to Sep 10, 2025 | Dec 10, 2024 | 95% | +5% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2024 02:00PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Sep 10, 2024 02:00PM UTC
(20 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(18 days ago)
Sep 13, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(18 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 66% | Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 54% | +12% | +1% |
| No | 34% | Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025 | Oct 13, 2024 | 46% | -12% | -1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 12:40PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 12:40PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2024 | 0% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 95% | Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2024 | 100% | -5% | +0% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 12:41PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 12:41PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +1% |
| No | 100% | Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025 | Oct 16, 2024 | 99% | +1% | -1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 12:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 12:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20% | 22% | -2% | -12% |
| No | 80% | 78% | +2% | +12% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 12:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 12:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | +0% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 16, 2024 12:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)
Sep 16, 2024 12:45PM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Oman | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Qatar | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 10% | 3% | +7% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 23, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Sep 23, 2024 03:37PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025 | Oct 23, 2024 | 87% | -27% | +43% |
| No | 40% | Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025 | Oct 23, 2024 | 13% | +27% | -43% |