Confirmed previous forecast
0.035354
Relative Brier Score
48
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 9 | 58 | 48 | 61 |
| Comments | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
10%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
3%
(0%)
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(-40%)
Yes
80%
(+40%)
No
Both leaders of Israel and Hamas have little incentive to agree to a deal - Netanyahu is so far ignoring the protests in Tel Aviv
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-5%)
Yes
Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025
95%
(+5%)
No
Sep 16, 2024 to Mar 16, 2025
Normalization will begin after the violence in Gaza ends, which seems unlikely to occur this winter.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
66%
Yes
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
34%
No
Sep 13, 2024 to Mar 13, 2025
Over the past ten years, the continent has experienced 11 coups. More likely than not that another occurs within the next six months - keeping an eye on the Oct Tunisian elections
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Estonia
0%
Latvia
0%
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Russia is highly deterred from attacking a NATO nation, especially when the war in Ukraine is likely to continue for some time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Putin has proven to be an irrational actor in the past with his invasion of Ukraine
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Sep 10, 2024 to Sep 10, 2025
100%
No
Sep 10, 2024 to Sep 10, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
The violence in Gaza has reduced civil unrest in Iran by sharpening focus on regional issues over internal ones.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
He is old
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Israel has scaled up attacks against Hezbollah in recent days with a stated purpose of allowing citizens to return to the north and pushing Hezbollah to back down. That is unlikely to happen and Israel will be left with few option.
Why might you be wrong?
The Israeli armed forces are stretched thin with fighting in Gaza unlikely to cease within the next 6 months.