86th
Accuracy Rank

martinsluis

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  • 2023 Season
    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? 0.004271
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.003732
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Ariel Henry cease to be either acting president or president of Haiti through an irregular transition on or before 31 December 2023? -0.001953
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? -0.000032
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023? -0.00006
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023? -0.000132
    Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.045276
    Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023) 0.0
    Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023) 0.0
    Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023) -0.032763
    Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) -0.0006
    Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) -0.000553
    Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) -0.186712
    Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.0
    Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.15043
    Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia? -0.031791
    Nov 1, 2023 04:01AM Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? 0.044578
    Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023) 0.0
    Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023) 0.001827
    Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023) 0.0
     
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