RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 10:48PM
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	39%	Mar 9, 2025 to Sep 9, 2025	Apr 9, 2025 10:48PM	39%	+0%	-2%
No	61%	Mar 9, 2025 to Sep 9, 2025	Apr 9, 2025 10:48PM	61%	+0%	+2%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 10:49PM
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Togo	13%	11%	+2%	-1%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations	28%	33%	-5%	-1%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 10:57PM
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	5%	-1%	+1%
No	96%	95%	+1%	-1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 11:04PM
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	7%	Mar 9, 2025 to Sep 9, 2025	Apr 9, 2025 11:04PM	5%	+2%	-2%
No	93%	Mar 9, 2025 to Sep 9, 2025	Apr 9, 2025 11:04PM	95%	-2%	+2%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 11:14PM
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	0%	9%	-9%	+1%
Bolivia	14%	13%	+1%	+1%
Ecuador	9%	8%	+1%	+0%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 9, 2025 11:16PM
(18 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	3%	5%	-2%	-3%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	80%	81%	-1%	+2%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	15%	13%	+2%	+1%
More than or equal to 40%	2%	1%	+1%	+1%

Will Ukraine and Russia agree to a ceasefire before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 13, 2025 02:40PM
(14 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	40%	33%	+7%	-5%
No	60%	67%	-7%	+5%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 06:55PM
(4 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	0%	4%	-4%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	34%	36%	-2%	0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	54%	53%	+1%	0%
More than or equal to 80	12%	8%	+4%	0%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:05PM
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	0%	3%	-3%	0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	5%	8%	-3%	+0%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	44%	34%	+10%	+0%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	43%	43%	+0%	+0%
More than or equal to 90	8%	12%	-4%	+0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(9 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 27, 2025 07:07PM
(3 hours ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025	Apr 27, 2025 07:07PM	3%	+0%	+0%
No	97%	Mar 27, 2025 to Sep 27, 2025	Apr 27, 2025 07:07PM	97%	+0%	+0%

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