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martinsluis

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Forecasted Questions

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:27PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	28%	34%	-6%	+1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	57%	53%	+4%	-1%
More than or equal to 80	15%	9%	+6%	+0%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:34PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 59	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	4%	9%	-5%	+1%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	46%	35%	+11%	+1%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive	46%	42%	+4%	-1%
More than or equal to 90	4%	11%	-7%	-2%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:36PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+0%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
62 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:36PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	0%
No	100%	98%	+2%	0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
47 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:36PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Latvia	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Lithuania	0%	3%	-3%	+0%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
32 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:36PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	0%
No	100%	99%	+1%	0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:36PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Apr 14, 2025 to Oct 14, 2025	May 14, 2025 06:36PM	3%	-2%	+0%
No	99%	Apr 14, 2025 to Oct 14, 2025	May 14, 2025 06:36PM	97%	+2%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
58 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:37PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Apr 14, 2025 to Oct 14, 2025	May 14, 2025 06:37PM	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	Apr 14, 2025 to Oct 14, 2025	May 14, 2025 06:37PM	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:37PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	6%	7%	-1%	-1%
Armenia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Georgia	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
Kazakhstan	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 14, 2025 06:38PM
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	0%	+0%	+0%