RAND Forecasting Initiative

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:50AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	6%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2026	Feb 18, 2025	12%	-6%	+1%
No	94%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2026	Feb 18, 2025	88%	+6%	-1%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:51AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	23%	-3%	-2%
No	80%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	77%	+3%	+2%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Forecast Count:
49 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 09:51AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	7%	-3%	+1%
No	96%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	93%	+3%	-1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 09:51AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	1%	+2%	+0%
No	97%	99%	-2%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
42 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 09:51AM UTC
(7 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
No	98%	95%	+3%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
43 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
49 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 01:32PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	Nov 18, 2024 to May 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	99%	+0%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 01:33PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	3%	3%	+0%	+0%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
25 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:04PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	20%	+5%	-1%
No	75%	80%	-5%	+1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
34 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 07:07PM UTC
(6 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Feb 18, 2025	13%	+5%	+1%
No	82%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Feb 18, 2025	87%	-5%	-1%

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