Looks increasingly like Russia is using Trump's abandonment of Ukraine to procrastinate an actual cease fire until it feels it has gained all that it can.
0.335675
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
278
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 28 | 88 | 1597 | 278 | 3968 |
| Comments | 4 | 16 | 101 | 74 | 134 |
| Questions Forecasted | 27 | 29 | 74 | 37 | 139 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 170 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
8%
(-4%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
18%
(-7%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
24%
(-5%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
50%
(+16%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump may lose patience or interests
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
3%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
80%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
15%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Yes
94%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
7%
(0%)
30 days
13%
(0%)
31-60 days
11%
(0%)
61-90 days
9%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Argentina
14%
(0%)
Bolivia
9%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Togo
26%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
39%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
61%
(0%)
No
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The latest blow on H20 chips should seal the deal given the short time frame. At current market prices NVIDIA would have to gain about 16%mora than Apple same a similar amount mora than MSFT.
Why might you be wrong?
This has been a crazy roller coaster and will probably continue ... Maybe Trump with shift the game again.