Adjusting lower as Russia is showing itself less interested
0.335675
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
190
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 61 | 1678 | 190 | 3880 |
| Comments | 0 | 15 | 85 | 58 | 118 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 27 | 77 | 35 | 137 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 170 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-10%)
Yes
60%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+20%)
Yes
50%
(-20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Looks like Ukraine is on board ...
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
Yes
70%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Ukraine is being strongly pushed into a cease fire (more of a surrender) by the Trump administration. However this could actually delay any agreement as there is a change that Russia will try to take advantage of a week Ukraine in order to grab a larger portion of the country.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump really wants to show he is a "peace maker"
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
3%
(-20%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
80%
(+9%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
15%
(+9%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
2%
(+2%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
With the US abandoning Ukraine and with the prospect of capitulation, the net perception report is likely to show sentimental support for the country
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Argentina
14%
(0%)
Bolivia
9%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 9, 2025 to Sep 9, 2025
93%
(0%)
No
Mar 9, 2025 to Sep 9, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(0%)
Togo
28%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering with the passage of time.
Why might you be wrong?
@martinsluis This is a rolling question, so each forecast we make is for the next 12 months and the forecasting window is not reduced with time.
Paradoxically, the "passage of time" alone slightly increases the chance he will die within the next year.