Small adjustment
-0.159772
Relative Brier Score
1711
Forecasts
61
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 42 | 137 | 2004 | 1711 | 3474 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 16 | 14 | 46 |
| Questions Forecasted | 41 | 42 | 94 | 70 | 126 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 79 | 61 | 167 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-2%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
85%
(+2%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
16%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
50%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
30%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
29%
(0%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
66%
(0%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
5%
(0%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
55%
(0%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(0%)
Togo
45%
(+5%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Adjusting slightly until recent reports are made clearer.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-3%)
Yes
95%
(+3%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(-5%)
Yes
63%
(+5%)
No
Adjustment
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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