RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	0.055141
Apr 15, 2024 10:00PM	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 15, 2024 and Apr 15, 2024)	-0.004458
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM	Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)	-0.026269
Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)	-0.000532
Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)	-0.000058
Apr 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)	-0.009929
Apr 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024)	0.0
Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	-0.00089
Apr 1, 2024 04:00PM	What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024?	-0.007822
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024)	0.000022
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)	0.0
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM	Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024)	-0.032834
Mar 15, 2024 10:00PM	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 15, 2024 and Mar 15, 2024)	-0.0038
Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)	-0.001997
Mar 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 6, 2024 and Mar 6, 2024)	-0.000962
Mar 3, 2024 05:00PM	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	-0.00017
Mar 2, 2024 04:00PM	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)	0.0
Mar 1, 2024 05:00AM	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	-0.000723
Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM	Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Feb 26, 2024)	-0.031681
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)	0.0

Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)

0.055141

Apr 15, 2024 10:00PM

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 15, 2024 and Apr 15, 2024)

-0.004458

Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM

Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024)

-0.026269

Apr 6, 2024 04:00PM

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024)

-0.000532