RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	-0.001132
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	0.589743
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023)	-0.002458
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM	Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?	-0.256727
Sep 5, 2023 08:34AM	Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?	-0.000003
Sep 1, 2023 09:00PM	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	-0.013471
Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.00249
Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023?	0.003913
Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?	0.002127
Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM	How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?	-0.000183
Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India?	0.002699
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM	Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023?	0.01228
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will 200 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in the North Central and North West zones of Nigeria?	0.000624
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict?	0.000777
Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023)	0.000458
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	0.589438
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?	0.000096
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?	0.000654
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province?	0.000259
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia?	0.000113

Date Ended

Question

Relative Brier Score

Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM

Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?

-0.001132

Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM

Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?

0.589743

Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023)

-0.002458