RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023)	0.0
Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM	In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023)	-0.032763
Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	-0.000553
Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	-0.0006
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM	Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023)	-0.186712
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023)	0.0
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.15043
Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia?	-0.031791
Nov 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	0.044578
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023)	0.0
Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023)	0.001827
Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023)	0.0
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM	Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023?	-0.001132
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	0.589743
Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023)	-0.002458
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM	Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive?	-0.256727
Sep 5, 2023 08:34AM	Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?	-0.000003
Sep 1, 2023 09:00PM	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	-0.013471
Sep 1, 2023 04:01AM	Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023?	0.00249
Sep 1, 2023 04:00AM	Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023?	0.003913

Dec 20, 2023 08:00PM

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 20, 2023 and Dec 20, 2023)

0.0

Dec 15, 2023 10:00PM

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Dec 15, 2023)

-0.032763

Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)

-0.000553

Dec 6, 2023 04:00PM

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)

-0.0006