RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023)	0.001467
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	0.025465
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023?	0.000941
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023?	0.014909
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will Kosovo and Serbia sign an EU-backed proposal aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations by 30 June 2023?	0.012938
Jul 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Which of the following companies will announce a new neuromorphic chip or system by 30 June 2023?	-0.00041
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023)	0.0016
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC	On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center?	-0.000726
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023)	0.000693
May 15, 2023 05:45PM UTC	Will Thailand hold a general election on or before 14 May 2023?	-0.000027

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