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New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(0%)
Yes
81%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(0%)
Yes
81%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
19%
(-27%)
Yes
81%
(+27%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating toward crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
haven't done my research
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files