Confirmed previous forecast
0.134727
Relative Brier Score
126
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 179 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 40 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
(0%)
Yes
54%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 27, 2024 08:43PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
91%
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
9%
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Following team
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
46%
(-16%)
Yes
54%
(+16%)
No
updating forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
11%
(-2%)
Moldova
1%
(-2%)
Armenia
4%
(-2%)
Georgia
1%
(-2%)
Kazakhstan
Update closer to crowd
Files
