RAND Forecasting Initiative

SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.

-0.000451

Relative Brier Score

1

Forecasts

0

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

No forecasts in the past 3 months

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	0	0	0	0	1
Comments	0	0	0	0	1
Questions Forecasted	0	0	0	0	1
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	0	0	0	0
Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, China Politics, Relations, and Technology

New Badge

melavi earned a new badge:

My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!

New Badge

melavi earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023?

melavi made their 1st forecast (view all):

Compare to me

Probability

Answer

Yes

Why do you think you're right?

I believe April 2023 is too near for such action. China is not ready to engage in Taiwan, and it is still unclear what the current U.S. administration would do. It might be better to wait for a change of government in the event Trump is elected again as president.

Files

Why might you be wrong?

China has been preparing for this moment over the past decade, gradually building its armed forces and consolidating its power in Asia.