Confirmed previous forecast
-1.160381
Relative Brier Score
307
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 50 | 395 | 307 | 401 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 26 | 9 | 29 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 17 | 34 | 28 | 35 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 20 | 7 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Oracle - Silver
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 6 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
13%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
87%
(0%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2026
88%
(0%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files