Confirmed previous forecast
-0.252075
Relative Brier Score
91
Forecasts
13
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 26 | 87 | 337 | 243 | 337 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 29 | 9 | 29 |
| Questions Forecasted | 17 | 17 | 33 | 26 | 33 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 3 | 20 | 7 | 20 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
10%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
(+6%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
15%
(-6%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
96%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Togo
25%
(0%)
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Yes
68%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files