0.110103
Relative Brier Score
256
Forecasts
151
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 52 | 26 | 289 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 69 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | 21 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 42 | 22 | 176 |
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Upvotes Received
Why do you think you're right?
According to the Washington Post:
[Israeli PM] Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the [IDF] to provide target options. . . that would “send a message” but not cause casualties. Those options include a potential strike on a facility in Tehran or a cyberattack, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks. “Everybody agrees that Israel must respond,” the official said. “How to respond, when to respond, is the question.”
What militates against going higher is the fact that evidence of a fire in Jul 2020 targeting potentially undeclared nuclear work in Tehran's Shadabad exurb — ~40 mi away from Parchin Military Complex & ~80 mi away from the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant for illustrative purposes — was concealed by Iranian authorities for nearly 4 years
Any Israeli response may similarly be clandestine in nature, thereby affording the Islamic Republic the opportunity to save face by concealing the outcome of such a response
Why might you be wrong?
Issuing a statement early on Sun, the IRGC said that the anti-Zionist operation was carried out against certain targets in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories
Dozens of drones were airborne from Iran toward Israel on Sat night, as Israel prepared to defend against the expected Iranian strike, IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari confirmed