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Confirmed previous forecast
-0.089256
Relative Brier Score
289
Forecasts
176
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 68 | 26 | 289 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 69 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 21 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 54 | 22 | 176 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Semiconductor Supply Chain,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Future Bowl,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
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Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Files
New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 15, 2024 to Feb 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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New Prediction
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This forecast expired on May 15, 2024 07:00PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
55%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 15, 2024 to Oct 15, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
According to the Washington Post:
[Israeli PM] Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the [IDF] to provide target options. . . that would “send a message” but not cause casualties. Those options include a potential strike on a facility in Tehran or a cyberattack, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks. “Everybody agrees that Israel must respond,” the official said. “How to respond, when to respond, is the question.”
What militates against going higher is the fact that evidence of a fire in Jul 2020 targeting potentially undeclared nuclear work in Tehran's Shadabad exurb — ~40 mi away from Parchin Military Complex & ~80 mi away from the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant for illustrative purposes — was concealed by Iranian authorities for nearly 4 years
Any Israeli response may similarly be clandestine in nature, thereby affording the Islamic Republic the opportunity to save face by concealing the outcome of such a response
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
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This forecast expired on Jul 13, 2024 09:15PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100%
(+1%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
0%
(-1%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
Closing out with Iranian media reports:
Issuing a statement early on Sun, the IRGC said that the anti-Zionist operation was carried out against certain targets in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories
Issuing a statement early on Sun, the IRGC said that the anti-Zionist operation was carried out against certain targets in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
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This forecast expired on Jul 13, 2024 08:28PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
99%
(+98%)
Yes
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
1%
(-98%)
No
Apr 13, 2024 to Oct 13, 2024
The Islamic Republic decided to pursue this escalatory course of action; will reduce accordingly if said Shahed 136 drones loiter outside of Israeli territory or the like:
Dozens of drones were airborne from Iran toward Israel on Sat night, as Israel prepared to defend against the expected Iranian strike, IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari confirmed
Dozens of drones were airborne from Iran toward Israel on Sat night, as Israel prepared to defend against the expected Iranian strike, IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari confirmed
Files