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Confirmation by the IAEA would likely represent a lagging indicator preceded by confirmation from US and/or Israeli intelligence
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New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
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Answer
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Yes
100%
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No
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New Prediction
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Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
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No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
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No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
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No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Unlikely by 31 Dec based on the current topline from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi coupled with the shattering of the Shi'a Crescent in Syria
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This forecast expired on Mar 10, 2025 03:35AM
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Answer
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(0%)
Yes
Dec 10, 2024 to Jun 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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This forecast expired on Dec 24, 2024 01:19AM
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Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
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This forecast expired on Nov 15, 2024 01:08AM
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Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 15, 2024 to Feb 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
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Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
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