p01yh15t0r

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Relative Brier Score
138000
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0

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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 0 14 0 292
Comments 0 0 0 0 69
Questions Forecasted 0 0 6 0 21
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 8 0 176
 Definitions
New Prediction
Confirmation by the IAEA would likely represent a lagging indicator preceded by confirmation from US and/or Israeli intelligence
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New Prediction
p01yh15t0r
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (+1%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

Unlikely by 31 Dec based on the current topline from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi coupled with the shattering of the Shi'a Crescent in Syria 

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p01yh15t0r
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Active Forecaster

New Prediction
p01yh15t0r
made their 6th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Mar 10, 2025 03:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Dec 10, 2024 to Jun 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
p01yh15t0r
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
p01yh15t0r
made their 5th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Dec 24, 2024 01:19AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
p01yh15t0r
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
p01yh15t0r
made their 4th forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 15, 2024 01:08AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Aug 15, 2024 to Feb 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
p01yh15t0r
earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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