Confirmation by the IAEA would likely represent a lagging indicator preceded by confirmation from US and/or Israeli intelligence
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 292 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 176 |
Definitions |

New Prediction
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
.jpg)
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(+1%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Unlikely by 31 Dec based on the current topline from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi coupled with the shattering of the Shi'a Crescent in Syria
Files

New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 10, 2025 03:35AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 10, 2024 to Jun 10, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 24, 2024 01:19AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
1%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
99%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 15, 2024 01:08AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Aug 15, 2024 to Feb 15, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files

New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files