Forecasted Questions
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2024 12:31PM UTC
(6 months ago)
May 31, 2024 12:31PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 97% | -27% | +2% |
| No | 30% | 3% | +27% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 29, 2024 02:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Jun 29, 2024 02:00PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 16% | 7% | +9% | -6% |
| Armenia | 10% | 2% | +8% | +0% |
| Georgia | 5% | 4% | +1% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 12:33PM UTC
(19 days ago)
Oct 31, 2024 12:33PM UTC
(19 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 24% | +71% | -7% |
| No | 5% | Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025 | Nov 30, 2024 | 76% | -71% | +7% |