6th
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rafabrotherhood

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025) -0.315776
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.162765
    Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024) -0.00315
    Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.116566
    Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024? 0.647435
    Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) 0.058056
    Apr 2, 2024 03:00PM Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? 0.703708
    Jan 1, 2024 05:00AM Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? 0.039381
    Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) 0.09381
    Nov 11, 2023 05:00AM From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Ethiopia? 0.102214
    Oct 11, 2023 04:00PM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 11, 2023 and Oct 11, 2023) -0.003073
    Sep 11, 2023 04:00PM Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 11, 2023 and Sep 11, 2023) -0.001174
    Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? -0.074318
    Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023? -0.019772
    Apr 10, 2023 09:00PM What will be the highest average price recorded for a gallon of diesel in the U.S. between 6 Feb 2023 and 10 Apr 2023? 1.07246
    Apr 5, 2023 07:15PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.107289
    Apr 5, 2023 07:14PM Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) 0.001004
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023? 0.002104
    Apr 1, 2023 04:00AM Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? 0.095262
    Mar 19, 2023 04:00AM Will Microsoft's AI-powered “new Bing” be available to the public by 30 April 2023? 0.394304
     
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