It has been reported that the Iraqi ambassador is scheduled to return to Tehran “within the next few hours” to continue his diplomatic work, indicating a strong likelihood of normalization of relations.
-0.315776
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 44 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 25 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Oracle - Bronze
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard 3 months in a row.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Mar 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Feb 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Jan 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 09:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
51%
Yes
Jul 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2024
49%
No
Jul 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While unlikely, there could always be unforeseen developments or escalations in tensions that might delay or alter the decision to return the ambassador. However, given the clear intent and actions already taken, this scenario appears less probable.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Given the rapid advancements in AI technology in China and the ambitious goals set by Chinese tech giants like Baidu, Tencent, and Huawei, it’s plausible that a Chinese-built Large Language Model (LLM) could break into the top 3 on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard within the next 12 months. These companies have demonstrated a strong commitment to innovation and have access to extensive resources, both from private investment and government support. China’s strategic prioritization of AI and its expanding talent pool also suggest that it is possible for a Chinese LLM to reach global competitiveness, rivaling Western counterparts in quality and performance.
Why might you be wrong?
While China has made impressive strides in AI, surpassing or matching leading models from organizations like OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic in the next year could be challenging. The top models are driven by extensive research, substantial computational resources, and large-scale data that might be difficult to fully replicate. Furthermore, the global ecosystem for AI development still heavily leans toward Western tech giants, which have the advantage of established research communities, access to unique data sets, and international collaborations. Thus, while the progress is noteworthy, achieving a top 3 ranking within a year might be unlikely for a Chinese LLM.