It has been reported that the Iraqi ambassador is scheduled to return to Tehran “within the next few hours” to continue his diplomatic work, indicating a strong likelihood of normalization of relations.
1.289483
Relative Brier Score
12
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 44 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 25 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 31, 2024 09:02PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
51%
Yes
Jul 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2024
49%
No
Jul 31, 2024 to Aug 31, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
While unlikely, there could always be unforeseen developments or escalations in tensions that might delay or alter the decision to return the ambassador. However, given the clear intent and actions already taken, this scenario appears less probable.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jul 29, 2024 02:21PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
6%
Yes
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
94%
No
Jun 29, 2024 to Dec 29, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
1. High Risks: The significant geopolitical repercussions of a strike, including the potential for a widespread regional conflict, serve as a strong deterrent against any preemptive military action. The consequences of escalating tensions not only with Iran but also with global powers involved in the region make such decisions particularly fraught.
2. International Diplomacy: Ongoing diplomatic efforts and negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program might be yielding enough progress to postpone or avoid military action. The potential revival of the Iran nuclear deal and continued dialogue at international forums can reduce the immediacy of the perceived threat, leading to lower probabilities of an attack.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
1. Continued Threat Perception: Despite low probability, there remains an underlying threat perception due to Iran’s nuclear activities, which could shift the strategic calculations unexpectedly, particularly if new intelligence or regional dynamics emerge.
2. Unpredictable Regional Dynamics: The Middle East is a volatile region with rapidly changing alliances and enmities. Any significant destabilization or incident linked to Iran’s nuclear facilities could rapidly alter the probability of military action.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(-34%)
Moldova
10%
(-35%)
Armenia
5%
(-19%)
Georgia
5%
(-14%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Russia has demonstrated historical and ongoing interest in maintaining influence over former Soviet states, often using military presence and economic pressure to exert control. For example, Russia already has military bases in regions like Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and has been involved in the Transnistrian conflict in Moldova. The potential for military action could be part of a broader strategy to reassert influence, especially if Russia perceives a threat to its interests in these regions or a need to respond to internal pressures with external actions
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The countries in question have been increasingly aligning with European institutions and expressing strong pro-European sentiments, which may deter Russian aggression due to potential severe diplomatic and economic consequences from the West. Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, for instance, have shown a strong commitment to European integration, potentially increasing the costs of any aggressive moves by Russia. Furthermore, the internal economic and political costs for Russia to engage in new large-scale military operations might be prohibitive, especially considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and international sanctions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Moldova
45%
Armenia
24%
Georgia
19%
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Comment deleted on Jun 29, 2024 01:59PM UTC
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Comment deleted on Jun 29, 2024 01:58PM UTC
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Given the rapid advancements in AI technology in China and the ambitious goals set by Chinese tech giants like Baidu, Tencent, and Huawei, it’s plausible that a Chinese-built Large Language Model (LLM) could break into the top 3 on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard within the next 12 months. These companies have demonstrated a strong commitment to innovation and have access to extensive resources, both from private investment and government support. China’s strategic prioritization of AI and its expanding talent pool also suggest that it is possible for a Chinese LLM to reach global competitiveness, rivaling Western counterparts in quality and performance.
Why might you be wrong?
While China has made impressive strides in AI, surpassing or matching leading models from organizations like OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic in the next year could be challenging. The top models are driven by extensive research, substantial computational resources, and large-scale data that might be difficult to fully replicate. Furthermore, the global ecosystem for AI development still heavily leans toward Western tech giants, which have the advantage of established research communities, access to unique data sets, and international collaborations. Thus, while the progress is noteworthy, achieving a top 3 ranking within a year might be unlikely for a Chinese LLM.