Forecasted Questions
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 01:38PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 01:38PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 1% | +5% | +0% |
| No | 95% | 100% | -5% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 01:40PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 01:40PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 01:46PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 01:46PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 36% | +14% | -9% |
| No | 50% | 64% | -14% | +9% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 06:04PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 15, 2024 06:04PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 76% | 9% | +67% | -1% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 0% | 6% | -6% | 0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 15, 2024 06:06PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Oct 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2026 | Jan 15, 2025 | 12% | -4% | +5% |
| No | 92% | Oct 15, 2024 to Apr 15, 2026 | Jan 15, 2025 | 88% | +4% | -5% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 06:22PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 15, 2024 06:22PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46% | 37% | +9% | -12% |
| No | 54% | 63% | -9% | +12% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 07:58PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 15, 2024 07:58PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 7% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 93% | 93% | +0% | +2% |