In late 2017, as the self-proclaimed Islamic State lost the territory it once controlled in eastern Syria, the prospect that the region’s hundreds of thousands of refugees and internally displaced persons would soon return to their homes gained renewed attention. For those contemplating a return, however, the decision is far from straightforward. That is particularly true of those from Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, two of the most important cities in eastern Syria. Both have suffered heavy destruction since the start of the uprising in 2011, causing population displacements prior to the Islamic State’s arrival, during the group’s period in control, and following the cities’ liberation.
While it has devastated homes, livelihoods, public services, and state institutions, the war in Syria has also deprived cities of the economic and political functions they played prior to 2011. The conflict has drawn in a wide array of local and foreign actors and fragmented the country’s social structures. That is particularly true in areas that were under Islamic State control, where complex economic, social, military, and political dynamics emerged. In Raqqa, for instance, both before and after the rise of the Islamic State, the local population had almost entirely fled the city as a result of fighting.1 Deir Ezzor, in turn, no longer fulfills its prewar role as a political and economic hub for eastern Syria, and today’s cross-section of antagonistic military and political forces makes lasting stability improbable. Kurdish-Arab tensions add another complicating factor to prospects for a durable settlement in Syria’s east.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is seeking a third presidential term, with the election scheduled for 10–12 December. He is expected to win and remain president until at least the next election in 2029. Sisi has been in power since 2014 after leading a coup d’état the previous year against the country’s first-ever democratically elected leader, Muhammad Morsi, who belonged to the Muslim Brotherhood. Since then, Sisi has prioritised stability and security, but has also presided over the worst economic crisis in Egypt’s recent history.
Democracy under Sisi has been moribund and at times farcical. During the last election, in March 2018, the government blocked the president’s opponents from standing against him, using intimidation and threats of arrest. Sisi ultimately won the election with 97% of the votes. The president’s primary opponent had initially campaigned for him and only became a candidate to validate the election. Many Egyptians joked that even Sisi’s opponent voted for him.
In the 2023 election, a key opposition figure, Ahmad Tantawi, withdrew in October, citing his inability to obtain the minimum number of endorsements. His supporters argued, however, that the Egyptian authorities stopped them from offering their endorsements. Tantawi is currently facing prosecution, as are several individuals involved in his campaign.