Sovereign debt defaults occur when a government is unable or unwilling to meet its financial obligations to external creditors. Sub-Saharan African countries have faced increasing debt pressures in recent years and the risk of debt distress remains a concern (IMF).
Angola has not defaulted on its external debt in recent decades. Its debt situation has improved recently, yet it remains vulnerable, with significant exposure to Chinese loans (S&P Global, Reuters). Its external debt is projected to be about 52.9% of GDP for 2024 (IMF).
Kenya has not defaulted on its external debt since gaining independence in 1963. However, it faces increasing pressure from rising debt levels, a depreciating currency, and pressures from external lenders such as China (Chatham House). Its external debt is projected to be about 38% of GDP in 2024 (IMF).
Ethiopia defaulted on its external debt in December 2023 after failing to make a payment on its only international bond (VOA, Reuters). Its external debt is projected to be 13.9% of its GDP in 2024 (IMF).
Nigeria has not defaulted on its external debt since it received debt relief in 2005-2006. However, its external debt increased significantly in 2023 compared to the previous year and faces significant fiscal pressures (Brookings, Wikipedia, IMF).
Why do you think you're right?
North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests between 2006 and 2017 (Union of Concerned Scientists), and is believed to currently possess enough material for dozens of nuclear weapons (SIPRI).
In 2022, North Korea tested 70 missiles, including short-, medium- and long-range missiles, which is more than at any time in its history (Union of Concerned Scientists). Most recently, North Korea tested new tactical ballistic missiles using super-large warheads and modified cruise missiles on September 18, 2024 (Reuters). North Korea also faces accusations of supplying Russia with weapons including drones and ballistic missiles to be used in the war in Ukraine (Reuters).
Why might you be wrong?
Recent intelligence from South Korea's National Intelligence Service suggests a seventh nuclear test may occur after the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, potentially accompanied by satellite launches and missile tests (Kyodo News). This information comes amid signs of renovation at the previously "destroyed" Punggye-ri nuclear test site and Kim Jong Un's recent visit to a uranium enrichment facility (Union of Concerned Scientists, BBC).