Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2024 01:52PM
(12 months ago)
Apr 24, 2024 01:52PM
(12 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 47% | 3% | +44% | +2% |
| Latvia | 44% | 3% | +41% | +1% |
| Lithuania | 42% | 3% | +39% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 14, 2024 01:38PM
(10 months ago)
Jun 14, 2024 01:38PM
(10 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 76% | 7% | +69% | -6% |
| Armenia | 75% | 2% | +73% | +1% |
| Georgia | 78% | 5% | +73% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 8% | 2% | +6% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 01:40PM
(8 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 01:40PM
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 01:46PM
(8 months ago)
Aug 30, 2024 01:46PM
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 37% | +13% | -9% |
| No | 50% | 63% | -13% | +9% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 07:58PM
(6 months ago)
Oct 15, 2024 07:58PM
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 5% | +2% | -4% |
| No | 93% | 95% | -2% | +4% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 1, 2025 04:51AM
(3 months ago)
Feb 1, 2025 04:51AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | Feb 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026 | May 1, 2025 04:51AM | 8% | -6% | +1% |
| No | 98% | Feb 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026 | May 1, 2025 04:51AM | 92% | +6% | -1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Jul 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 1, 2025 04:51AM
(3 months ago)
Feb 1, 2025 04:51AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 2% | +48% | +0% |
| No | 50% | 98% | -48% | +0% |
Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 1, 2025 05:02AM
(3 months ago)
Feb 1, 2025 05:02AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 12% | 8% | +4% | -3% |
| Bolivia | 16% | 12% | +4% | -3% |
| Ecuador | 10% | 8% | +2% | -2% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 1, 2025 05:03AM
(3 months ago)
Feb 1, 2025 05:03AM
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 5% | 5% | +0% | +0% |
| Kenya | 6% | 4% | +2% | -1% |
| Ethiopia | 25% | 22% | +3% | -2% |
| Nigeria | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |