sai_39

Saicharan Ritwik Chinni

About:

UG Thesis @ CIDMA, Yale | Undergrad student from India pursuing 4 majors (Math, Data Science, Finance and Electronics).

# 8th in 2024-25 Red Carpet Challenge @ GJ Open.

GJ Open: https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/sai_39
RANGE: https://www.rangeforecasting.org/forecaster/sai_39

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Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM	What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?	-0.007688
Jan 31, 2025 05:00AM	Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?	-0.009622
Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM	Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?	-0.001342
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?	-0.000117
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?	-0.005899
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?	-0.006591
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?	-0.000187
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?	-0.000085
Jan 1, 2025 05:01AM	Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?	-0.000071
Dec 1, 2024 05:01AM	Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?	-0.064307
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM	Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)	0.160025
Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)	-0.000113
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM	For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?	0.0
Jul 6, 2024 04:00PM	Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)	0.0021
Jul 1, 2024 04:01PM	Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?	-0.000008
Jul 1, 2024 04:01AM	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	-0.000012