Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
58
Forecasts
11
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 8 | 17 | 273 | 58 | 273 |
| Comments | 4 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 53 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 15 | 43 | 25 | 43 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 7 | 24 | 11 | 24 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0%
(0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0%
(0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0%
(0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 17, 2025 to Sep 17, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Mar 17, 2025 to Sep 17, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming. Especially because the Junta extended the emergency by another six months. The Irrawaddy
Myanmar's military government extended a four-year emergency rule, further delaying plans for long-promised general elections as a civil war rages on.
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Why might you be wrong?
The security situation is volatile.
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New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Apr 13, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Affirming.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(-7%)
Yes
77%
(+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating because 'Russia rejects temporary Ukraine ceasefire, pushes for long-term peace settlement'. Financial Express
Russia has rejected a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, with Yuri Ushakov, a senior aide to President Vladimir Putin, emphasising Moscow’s preference for a long-term peace agreement that considers Russia’s strategic interests, reports Financial Times. Ushakov described the temporary ceasefire as “nothing other than a temporary breather for Ukrainian troops” and stated, “Nobody needs steps that imitate peaceful actions in this situation.”
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Why might you be wrong?
Same as first forecast.
Files
New Comment
Similar question on GJ Open (When will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device?) has a crowd forecast of 80% for the 'Not before 9 August 2025' bucket.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Moldova
0%
(0%)
Armenia
0%
(0%)
Georgia
0%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jun 10, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 10, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 10, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files