sai_39

Saicharan Ritwik Chinni
About:

UG Thesis @ CIDMA, Yale | Undergrad from India.

# 7th, 2024-25 Red Carpet Challenge @ GJ Open.

GJ Open: https://www.gjopen.com/forecaster/sai_39
RANGE: https://www.rangeforecasting.org/forecaster/sai_39

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2025 Season Stats

No Scores Yet

Relative Brier Score
138250-202468101214161820222426
Questions Forecasted

76

Forecasts

13

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreJanFebMarAprSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 4 17 291 76 291
Comments 1 9 63 56 63
Questions Forecasted 4 15 43 25 43
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 2 26 13 26
 Definitions
New Prediction
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
sai_39 made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
sai_39 made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
sai_39 made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (+1%)
Yes
Apr 12, 2025 to Oct 12, 2025
99% (-1%)
No
Apr 12, 2025 to Oct 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Minor update.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
sai_39 made their 18th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
sai_39 made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Moldova
0% (0%)
Armenia
0% (0%)
Georgia
0% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
sai_39 made their 9th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (+5%)
Yes
Apr 9, 2025 to Apr 9, 2026
95% (-5%)
No
Apr 9, 2025 to Apr 9, 2026
Why do you think you're right?

Updating.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
sai_39 made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Apr 7, 2025 to Oct 7, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
 
Files
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