sai_39

Saicharan Ritwik Chinni
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Relative Brier Score
138250-202468101214161820222426
Questions Forecasted

58

Forecasts

11

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
LessMoreDecJanFebMarSuMoTuWeThFrSa
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 8 17 273 58 273
Comments 4 11 53 46 53
Questions Forecasted 8 15 43 25 43
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 7 24 11 24
 Definitions
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana
0% (0%)
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells
0% (0%)
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo
0% (0%)
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming. Especially because the Junta extended the emergency by another six months.   The Irrawaddy

Myanmar's military government extended a four-year emergency rule, further delaying plans for long-promised general elections as a civil war rages on.

Bangkok Post

Files
Why might you be wrong?

The security situation is volatile.

Files
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 8th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Apr 13, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Affirming. 

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
23% (-7%)
Yes
77% (+7%)
No
Why do you think you're right?

Updating because 'Russia rejects temporary Ukraine ceasefire, pushes for long-term peace settlement'.  Financial Express

Russia has rejected a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, with Yuri Ushakov, a senior aide to President Vladimir Putin, emphasising Moscow’s preference for a long-term peace agreement that considers Russia’s strategic interests, reports Financial Times. Ushakov described the temporary ceasefire as “nothing other than a temporary breather for Ukrainian troops” and stated, “Nobody needs steps that imitate peaceful actions in this situation.”
Files
Why might you be wrong?

Same as first forecast.

Files
New Comment
Similar question on GJ Open (When will North Korea next detonate a nuclear device?) has a crowd forecast of 80% for the 'Not before 9 August 2025' bucket.
Files
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 17th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
0% (0%)
Latvia
0% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 8th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1% (0%)
Moldova
0% (0%)
Armenia
0% (0%)
Georgia
0% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
sai_39
made their 8th forecast (view all):
This forecast will expire on Jun 10, 2025
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 10, 2026
100% (0%)
No
Mar 10, 2025 to Mar 10, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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