Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 13, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 13, 2024 03:04PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025 | Dec 13, 2024 | 22% | -17% | +16% |
No | 95% | Sep 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2025 | Dec 13, 2024 | 78% | +17% | -16% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2024 05:23PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Oct 09, 2024 05:23PM UTC
(27 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025 | Nov 9, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | Oct 9, 2024 to Apr 9, 2025 | Nov 9, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 10, 2024 03:56PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Oct 10, 2024 03:56PM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 1% | 4% | -3% | -1% |
Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 04:01AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Oct 11, 2024 04:01AM UTC
(26 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 99% | 97% | +2% | +0% |
No | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 09:30AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 11, 2024 09:30AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 27% | -17% | +14% |
No | 90% | 73% | +17% | -14% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 01:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 11, 2024 01:05PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 1% | 8% | -7% | +0% |
Armenia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Georgia | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 12, 2024 04:09AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 12, 2024 04:09AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 12, 2024 06:53PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Oct 12, 2024 06:53PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Oct 13, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 17, 2024 04:26AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Oct 17, 2024 04:26AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | 0% |