Forecasted Questions
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 02, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 02, 2024 07:33PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 57% | Oct 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2025 | Jan 2, 2025 | 22% | +35% | +0% |
| No | 43% | Oct 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2025 | Jan 2, 2025 | 78% | -35% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 14, 2024 02:18PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 14, 2024 02:18PM UTC
(22 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 11% | +2% | -6% |
| No | 87% | 89% | -2% | +6% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 15, 2024 06:59PM UTC
(21 days ago)
Oct 15, 2024 06:59PM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 27% | -2% | +12% |
| No | 75% | 73% | +2% | -12% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 07:34PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 07:34PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 | Nov 25, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 07:35PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 07:35PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 5% | -2% | -1% |
| No | 97% | 95% | +2% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:54AM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 11:54AM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 12:07PM UTC
(7 days ago)
Oct 29, 2024 12:07PM UTC
(7 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | 32% | -9% | -31% |
| No | 77% | 68% | +9% | +31% |