8th
Accuracy Rank

sanyero

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Forecasted Questions

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 07:34PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Nov 25, 2024 1%
No 100% Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025 Nov 25, 2024 99%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 07:35PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 3% 5%
No 97% 95%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 29, 2024 11:54AM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 0% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 03:51PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 37% Nov 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2025 Feb 7, 2025 22%
No 63% Nov 7, 2024 to Nov 7, 2025 Feb 7, 2025 78%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 03:02PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 8%
No 94% 92%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2024 04:48PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 70% 33%
No 30% 67%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?​

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(12 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:25PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 21% 27%
No 79% 73%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 16, 2024 02:34PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 14% 21%
No 86% 79%
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