Forecasted Questions
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 05:48PM UTC
(24 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 05:48PM UTC
(24 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 11% | +1% | -3% |
| No | 88% | 89% | -1% | +3% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2024 10:09AM UTC
(21 days ago)
Sep 10, 2024 10:09AM UTC
(21 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 22% | -6% | -13% |
| No | 84% | 78% | +6% | +13% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 09:46AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 09:46AM UTC
(9 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025 | Dec 22, 2024 | 8% | -4% | +2% |
| No | 96% | Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025 | Dec 22, 2024 | 92% | +4% | -2% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 09:00AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 09:00AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025 | Oct 25, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2024 09:01AM UTC
(6 days ago)
Sep 25, 2024 09:01AM UTC
(6 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +1% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 87% | +3% | +16% |
| No | 10% | Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 13% | -3% | -16% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 26, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Sep 26, 2024 09:14PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 84% | +6% | +1% |
| No | 10% | Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025 | Oct 26, 2024 | 16% | -6% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2024 02:36PM UTC
(2 days ago)
Sep 28, 2024 02:36PM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |