Confirmed previous forecast
0.034417
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
36
Forecasts
6
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 14 | 113 | 36 | 333 |
| Comments | 0 | 7 | 34 | 25 | 87 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 12 | 33 | 18 | 66 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 41 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
97%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
11%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
89%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Mar 31, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-32%)
Yes
82%
(+32%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating based on Putin’s aggressive comments and Poland’s refusal to send sufficient support
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Might be an overuodate. Politics are messy.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(+25%)
Yes
50%
(-25%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Updating to 50% until the unclarity over the partial ceasefire agreement is resolved. Will downgrade in a few days as more data pours in.
Russia and Ukraine both appear to argue that neither of them have treated the treaty with respect.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This might be an over-updated hedge.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
6%
(-4%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
19%
(-12%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
48%
(+16%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
27%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Updating closer to consensus
Files
Why might you be wrong?
-
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Yes
92%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files