Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 05:39PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Sep 20, 2024 05:39PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 01, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 01, 2024 09:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 | Jan 1, 2025 | 22% | -12% | +3% |
| No | 90% | Oct 1, 2024 to Oct 1, 2025 | Jan 1, 2025 | 78% | +12% | -3% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 05:02PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Nov 26, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Nov 26, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Jan 26, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 05:06PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:09PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 05:09PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Nov 26, 2024 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Oct 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025 | Nov 26, 2024 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 05:14PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 05:14PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 95% | +5% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 08:35PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 15% | +85% | -1% |
| No | 0% | 85% | -85% | +1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 10:29PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Oct 26, 2024 10:29PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 27% | -22% | +8% |
| No | 95% | 73% | +22% | -8% |